Facts & Evidence

Mini Holland has suffered from a lot of wild assertions and claims which are not backed up. Below we list some facts and links which we think make a strong case for the Mini Holland principles and public realm measures being planned and implemented.

• Journeys By Car
• Health
• Local economy
• Cycle infrastructure
• Census Data
• Perception surveys

Journeys by car

Road safety charity Brake released a report (“Safety concerns are barrier to delivering walking and cycling benefits”, 10th Feb 2015) clearly showing that safety fears are preventing more young people walking or cycling –  parents fears topped the list, following by speeding traffic, and a lack of safe routes.

The private car represents a hugely inefficient use of road space. Our roads are clogged despite only half of households in the central Walthamstow area having access to a car (see ‘Census data’ below), and only a small proportion of them driving regularly. Using residential streets to improve through traffic capacity is no solution.

And its often most disadvantaged in our community who do not have use of a car yet suffer from the resultant pollution, danger and ill health. Encouraging more space efficient walking and cycling is key to healthier communities.

• 40% of outer London car journeys are less than 2km; Transport for London – Why Walk?
• If every Londoner switched car trips under 2kn to to walking and to cycling trips for 2-8km car journeys, the share who got enough exercise to remain healthy by simply getting around would rise from 25% to 60%. Which totals 61, 500 years of healthy life gained each year (Streetwise, The Economist Magazine 5th Sep 2015).
• The school run now accounts for at least one in every five cars on London’s roads.
• If cars on the borough’s school run each day were parked end to end they would stretch from Waltham Forest to Wembley Stadium; Waltham Forest Council – Mini Holland Health Benefits
• In Britain in 1949, over 30% of total road distance travelled was by bike. That’s a higher proportion than in the Netherlands now. The geography of Britain hasn’t changed, but the road conditions have. That’s why people no longer cycle.
• Commuting by car actually harms the creation of “social capital” or the glue that holds societies together and without which there can be no economic growth or human well-being. Relationships Between Commuting and Social Capital Among Men and Women in Southern Sweden, Environment and Behavior 2015, Vol. 47(7) 734–753
• 1.6 million car trips per day, made by London residents, could
  potentially be walked (22% of car trips). Health Impact of Cars in London, Greater London Authority Sep 2015
• Traffic caused by parents doing the school run adds 24 hours to the average journey time over the course of a year; Daily Mail article 10 Sep 2015
• 2.7 million car trips per day, made by London residents, could
  potentially be cycled (38% of car trips). Health Impact of Cars in London, Greater London Authority Sep 2015
• Road space is a precious resource, and there’s not enough of it. As demonstrated so famously by Munster in Austria, “in the space it takes to accommodate 60 cars, cities can accommodate around sixteen buses or more than 600 bikes”.
• Just as building new roads generates extra motor traffic, reducing road capacity leads to a reduction in motor traffic. Across the 60 case studies (in the UK, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Italy, The Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, the US, Canada, Tasmania and Japan), there was an average reduction of 41% of the traffic flows on the roads whose capacity had been reduced, of which rather less than half could be detected as reappearing on alternative routes. Cairns, Sally; Hass-Klau, Carmen; Goodwin, Phil (1998). Traffic Impact of Highway Capacity Reductions: Assessment of the Evidence. London: Landor Publishing. p. 261. ISBN 1-899650-10-5.  Also see “When roads are closed, where does the traffic go? Traffic evaporation and Braess’s paradox“
  
• 80% of outer London car journeys are less than 5km; A Transport Agenda for Outer London by Campaign for Better Transport, the London Cycling Campaign and Living Streets
• The proportion of households owning a car increases as household
  income increases, from 23% in London households earning less than
  £5000 per year to 78% in households with incomes of £50,000 – £74,999
  per year. Health Impact of Cars in London, Greater London Authority Sep 2015
• The 2013 Round of Demographic Projections by Greater London Authority suggest that Waltham Forest’s population will reach…. over 340,000 by 2041, equivalent to a total growth of 32% from 2012. The implications of maintaining current travel patterns for  car parking requirements and road congestion do not bear thinking about.

Health

We’re struggling in the UK to reverse sedentary lifestyles. Children are particularly at risk, with obesity representing a long term threats to their futures, and further stretching health services. Vehicle emissions in residential areas damages children’s lungs which prevents them reaching their maximum growth potential, and risks a range of respiratory disorders in childhood, and disease in later life.

• Research published in June 2018 by Dr Rachel Aldred on behalf of the University of Westminster shows that people living in the three Mini-Holland boroughs (Waltham Forest, Enfield & Kingston) are becoming more physically active year on year spending an extra 32 minutes per week walking, or 9 minutes a week cycling. Impacts of an active travel intervention with a cycling focus in a suburban context: One-year findings from an evaluation of London’s in-progress mini-Hollands programme, Dr Rachel Aldred, University of Westminster, June 2018
• A report published by Kings College shows gains in life expectancy by at least 7 months from Waltham Forest residents walking and cycling (which has increased recently), which equates to a gain of around 204,000 life years for the borough’s population over a lifetime. The study also looked at the impact of projections in increased walking and cycling during the school run in the borough (partially due to behaviour change following the Enjoy Waltham Forest programme). Assuming the largest increase in school run walking and cycling, there would be a gain in life expectancy of three weeks. Waltham Forest study of life expectancy benefits of increased physical activity from walking and cycling, Kings College. September 2018.
• 14 per cent of children age 11 are overweight and over 23 per cent are obese or overweight; Waltham Forest Council – Mini Holland Health Benefits
• If Londoners swapped motorised trips that could reasonably be walked and cycled, 60% of them would meet the recommended 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The population of London would gain over 60,000 years of healthy life every year which would deliver an economic health benefit of over £2 billion annually. Health Impact of Cars in London, Greater London Authority Sep 2015.
• Some 2,082 children aged 0-15 were killed or seriously injured on Britain’s roads in
  2014. As with many other public health issues, road traffic casualty rates show a steep social gradient. Children in the 10% most deprived wards are four times more likely to be hit by a car than those in the 10% least deprived. In general, motorised road transport tends to better serve those who are already more advantaged. The richest 10% of the population effectively receive almost four times as much public spending on their transport needs as the poorest 10%. Working Together to Promote Active Travel, Public Health England May 2016.
• Being physically active reduces your risk of chronic diseases by 50%; Waltham Forest Council – Mini Holland Health Benefits
• Inactivity is a major cause of type 2 diabetes, and a key WHO recommendation to  governments is to “create supportive built and social environments for physical activity – transport and urban planning policy measures can facilitate access to safe, affordable opportunities for physical activity.” Global Report on Diabetes, April 2016, World Health Organisation
• Barts NHS Health Trust expect Mini Holland to help “to increase healthy life expectancy and reduce morbidity from at least 20 common diseases”. Letter from Barts supporting the Mini Holland bid, Dec 2013.
• Researchers found that people who walked or cycled to work benefitted from improved mental wellbeing in comparison with those who travelled by car. National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), 16 September 2014
• Nearly 9,500 people die each year in London because of air pollution (Guardian 15 Jul 2015,  & DEFRA as reported by Bikebiz 15 Sep 2015]
• The true cost of air pollution to the NHS has been calculated as being as high as £53.58 billion each year. Campaign for Air Pollution Public Enquiry.
• Diesel emissions dominate urban road pollution with about ten times the toxicity of petrol fumes. As 20mph limits reduce the most toxic diesel fumes, setting a wide 20mph limit is equivalent to removing nearly half of all petrol cars. Press release by 20’s Plenty for Us, 2 Oct 2015
• Transport is responsible for around a quarter of EU greenhouse gas emissions making it the second biggest greenhouse gas emitting sector after energy. Road transport alone contributes about one-fifth of the EU’s total emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the main greenhouse gas. While emissions from other sectors are generally falling, those from transport have continued to increase until 2008 when transport emissions started to decrease on the back of oil prices, increased efficiency of passenger cars and slower growth in mobility. European Union: Reducing emissions form transport.
• In London, 43% of adults do not achieve the minimum level of 150
  minutes of physical activity each week that is recommended to stay
  healthy. Health Impact of Cars in London, Greater London Authority Sep 2015.
• Every hour of your daily commute spent in a car makes you 6 percent more likely to be obese. Every kilometer you walk (about .6 of a mile) reduces it by almost 5 percent. The Best Ways to Get to Work, According to Science, 30 Sep 2015
• To create an environment suitable for cycling by 8 – 80 year olds, most effective interventions substantially separate people cycling from motor traffic, such as Greenway routes, filtered permeability, and segregation on busier roads by kerbs or car parking. Children and Cycling by Dr Rachel Aldred.
• Fear of road traffic injury is the key reason people give for not cycling and that parents give for limiting their children’s independence. Fear of road danger from cars and other motorised vehicles is a key factor in preventing Londoners from being more active. Switching from private motor transport to active travel or public
  transport is associated with a significant reduction in body mass
  index. Health Impact of Cars in London, Greater London Authority Sep 2015

Local economy

It is likely your business is already visited by far more people on bikes and on foot than you realise.  Public realm improvements, protected space for bikes on main roads and other cycling measures have been repeatedly shown to increase sales in nearby shops.

• Click here for TfL reports, studies and evidence to present the economic benefits of investment in walking and cycling.
  • TfL’s ‘Street Appeal’ report includes evidence to show the positive impact of walking and cycling on high streets, town centres and other shopping areas:
    • A one third uplift in the physical quality of the street as a whole from interventions in the publically owned street space.
    • An uplift in office rental values equivalent to an ‘additional’ 4% per annum. This helps to support investment in business space in the face of pressures to convert to more profitable residential uses.
    • A larger uplift in retail rental values equivalent to an ‘additional’ 7.5% per annum. This results from the more attractive retail environment that has been created and the encouragement this is giving to investment in these locations despite competition from on-line retail and ’out-of-town’ shopping centres.
    • A strongly related decline in retail vacancy leading to a sizable 17% per annum difference in vacancy rates between improved and unimproved street environments.
    • A growth in leisure uses, and a greater resilience in the improved streets of traditional (A1) and comparison retail; all bucking the common trend of decline in such uses that is often seen elsewhere.
    • An almost negligible impact on residential values, helping to counter concerns that street improvements, by themselves, will further inflate house prices and encourage gentrification.
    • Inconsequential impacts, from the street improvements alone, on traffic flows or the modal choices made by individuals when travelling (unless road capacity is deliberately removed as part of an improvement scheme), but a reduction in serious or fatal accidents on those streets with higher pre-existing levels of collisions.
    • A large 96% boost in static (e.g. standing, waiting, and sitting) and 93% boost in active (e.g. walking) street behaviours in improved over unimproved areas, with strong potential health benefits in the resulting more active lifestyles.
    • A particularly large 216% hike in the sorts of leisure based static activities (e.g. stopping at a café or sitting at a bench) that only happen when the quality of the environment is sufficiently conducive to make people wish to stay.
    • Very strong perceptions amongst both everyday street users and local property occupiers that street improvement schemes significantly enhance street character, walkability, ease of crossing, opportunities for sitting, and general street vibrancy.
  • TfL’s Walking & cycling economic benefits pack (which you can download from the link above) identifies that investment:
    • Boosts the high street and local town centres: walking and cycling improvements can increase retail spend by up to 30%.
    • Reduces absences and increases productivity: People who are physically active take 27% fewer sick days each year than their colleagues.
    • Attracts employees and businesses: Businesses see walking and cycling as
      key to attracting and retaining the staff they need to thrive
    • Keeps the city moving for business: New cycle lanes in London have helped some streets carry up to 5% more people at the busiest times.
    • Delivers wider Economic Benefits: Investing in walking and cycling can prevent billions of pounds worth of health and environmental damage.
    • Helps everyone share the benefits: Active travel is accessible and inclusive. Making it easier to walk and cycle means that more Londoners can enjoy the benefits
• Cyclists visit local shops more regularly, spending more than users of most other modes of transport. Per square metre, cycle parking delivers 5 times higher retail spend than the same area of car parking. A compact town optimised for walking and cycling can have a “retail density” (spend per square metre) 2.5 times higher than a typical urban centre. Value of Cycling, University of Birmingham and Phil Jones Associates, March 2016.
• Research shows that making places better for walking can boost footfall and trading by up to 40%
• Good urban design can raise retail rents by up to 20%
• International and UK studies have shown that pedestrians spend more than people arriving by car. Comparisons of spending by transport mode in Canada and New Zealand revealed that pedestrians spent up to six-times more than people arriving by car. In London town centres in 2011, walkers spent £147 more per month than those travelling by car
• All the above from The Pedestrian Pound – the business case for better streets and places, Living Streets
• Retailers often overate the importance of the car. A survey conducted in spring 2015 in Lea Bridge Road Waltham Forest showed that businesses believed that 63% of their customers arrived by car; a survey of visitors to the street revealed that only 20% had arrived by car. A study in Graz, Austria, subsequently repeated in Bristol found that retailers overestimated the number of customers arriving by car by almost 100%.

More reports and articles:

• • Economic benefits of walking and cycling (TfL)
  • Spend on High Streets According to Travel Mode
  • The British Cycling Economy (London School of Economics, 2011)
  • Making changes to streets will surely be bad for business
  • Shoppers and how they travel
  • Why US business leaders want high quality cycle infrastructure
  • Why local businesses shouldn’t worry about eliminating on street parking
  • Protected bike lanes raise the income of local shops 
  • Protected Bike Lanes Mean Business
  • How Bike Lanes Increase Small Business Revenue
  • The Complete Business Case for Converting Street Parking Into Bike Lanes
  • Economic Impacts of Bike Lanes
  • Cyclists, bike lanes and on-street parking: economic impacts

Cycle infrastructure

• Danish levels of cycling in the UK would save the NHS £17bn within 20 years … and increase mobility of the nation’s poorest families by 25%.
• Bike lanes can increase retail sales by 25%
• Bike parking takes up 8 times less space than cars, helping to free up space
• Adopting Dutch safety standards could reduce cycling casualties by two thirds
• Cycling saves a third of road space compared to driving, to help cut congestion

All the above from Benefits of Investing in Cycling (Dr Rachel Aldred, Oct 2014)

• In Seville, an 80-mile network of protected bike lanes boosted biking from 0.6 percent to 7 percent of trips in six years.
• The average protected bike lane sees bike counts increase 75 percent in its first year alone.
• Streets with protected bike lanes saw 90 percent fewer injuries per mile than those with no bike infrastructure.
• Making biking comfortable, safe and dignified has made expensive car ownership optional for low-income Denmark residents.
• Only 41 percent of trips by Denmark’s poorest residents happen in cars, compared to 72 percent by the poorest Americans.

All the above from People for Bikes.

Census data

• In 2011 over half of the households in the High Street, Hoe Street, Leyton & Cathall wards did not have access to a car. Car or van availability in Waltham Forest (for 2011 & 2001).
• Under 20% of work commutes are by car (includes both as driver and as passenger). Method of travel to work in Waltham Forest (for 2011 & 2001)
• Across the whole of Waltham Forest, 3% of work commuters travel by bicycle; in some parts of the borough this figure is as high as 5.4% – 8.9%. Cycling to work in London (2011)
• ‘Heat map’ display for 2011 census data (this view shows travel to work by bicycle)

Perception surveys – what Waltham Forest residents think about their local areas

As well as using conventional survey techniques, Waltham Forest council embarked on a series of surveys using the innovative online commonplace tool, in order to establish how local people felt about the key areas earmarked for improvement as part of the Mini Holland programme.  The results can be found by clicking here, and some of the infographics are listed below.

Chingford

In total 1527 people responded

• 687 respondents would like to see better pavements
• 591 respondents would like to see more plants and trees
• 498 respondents would like less traffic on the roads
• 486 respondents would like more attractive streets
• 472 respondents would like slower traffic
• 455 respondent would like more local shops
• 437 respondents would like safer crossing points
• 430 respondents would like more places to sit
• 402 respondents would like improved public spaces
• Click here to see more of the perception survey results.

Highams Park

In total 628 people responded

• 319 respondents would like to see better pavements
• 246 respondents would like to see more plants and trees
• 239 respondents would like safer crossing points
• 222 respondents would like more attractive streets
• 207 respondents would like slower traffic
• 201 respondent would like more local shops
• Click here to see more of the perception survey results.

Leytonstone Town Centre

• 59% of respondents would like to see more plants and trees to
  make Leytonstone Town Centre more pleasant for walking and cycling
• Click here to see more of the perception survey results.

Leyton Town Centre

• 52%would like more plants and trees, 44% would like better pavements, 44% would like protected cycle lanes
• Click here to see more of the perception survey results.

Blackhorse Village

• The ways in which respondents travel in the Blackhorse Village area: Walk 71%, Public Transport 40%, Car 35%,  Cycle 27%
• Click here to see more of the perception survey results.

Hoe Street & Wood Street

• 54% would like less traffic, 54% would like slower traffic
• Click here to see more of the perception survey results.

Lea Bridge Road

• How respondents travel on Lea Bridge Road: Walk 75%, Public Transport 61%, Car 47%,  Cycle 36%. Click here for the infographic.
• 13% said business and shops are good, 69% feel that some places on Lea Bridge Road are not safe. More information here.
• Business perception of Lea Bridge Road: It is attractive 19%, It is unattractive 33%. Business is flourishing 11%, business could be better 33%. More information here.
• Business think 63% of their customers traveled to the area by car; however only 20% of visitors reported travelling by car. More information here.

Church Road

• How respondents travel on Church Road: Walk 65%, Public Transport 52%, Car 38%,  Cycle 27%. More information here.
• 40% of businesses said they would like to see a better retail, business and service mix. More information here.

Forest Road

Click below for more of the perception survey results.

• 60% of businesses said business could be better, and 50% said its difficult to get around. More information here.
• 75% of respondents would like protected cycle lanes, 74% slower traffic, nd 74% safer crossing points. More information here.

10 indicators of a healthy street

The healthy street indicators above are from the TfL report “Improving the health of Londoners”.

Further reading

• TfL Travel in London reports
• London Travel Demand Survey
• A Transport Agenda for Outer London by Campaign for Better Transport, the London Cycling Campaign and Living Streets
• Research Library, Cycling Embassy of Great Britain
• Barriers to cycling amongst ethnic minority groups and people
  from deprived backgrounds? TfL November 2011